Abstract

JOUBERT, F.J.  and  PRETORIUS, L.. Using Monte Carlo simulation to create a ranked check list of risks in a portfolio of railway construction projects. S. Afr. J. Ind. Eng. [online]. 2017, vol.28, n.2, pp.133-148. ISSN 2224-7890.  http://dx.doi.org/10.7166/28-2-1604.

When introducing quantified risk assessments at a South African state-owned freight company, a skills gap was found during the identification and quantified risk analysis. To help with risk identification, a checklist of risks for railway construction projects was developed. The basis of this checklist was 38 individual railway construction project risk registers that were collated into a single risk register. After the risks had been cleaned up and classified, a Monte Carlo simulation using @Risk software was done that produced a ranked check list of risks. This list of risks is valuable because subject matter experts developed it, and can be used as a risk identification checklist by stakeholders in similar projects. The simulation results also showed that project scope is an influencing factor on the ranking of risks.

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