Resumo

HUGO, F.D.; PRETORIUS, L.  e  BENADE, S.J.. Some aspects of the use and usefulness of quantitative risk analysis tools in project management. S. Afr. J. Ind. Eng. [online]. 2018, vol.29, n.4, pp.116-128. ISSN 2224-7890.  http://dx.doi.org/10.7166/29-4-1821.

Central to project management is risk management - and the need to develop better and more specific tools to manage risk. This is driven by the desire to reduce uncertainty and risk on projects. Quantitative tools such as Monte Carlo simulation are sometimes used to analyse risk, but it is not clear how widespread, accepted, or useful such tools are for practising project personnel. This research was undertaken to gain feedback from practising project and risk management personnel about the use of risk management tools. Special attention was given to the levels of use of quantitative risk management tools and the benefits gained from their use. A conceptual framework was created linking the factors that affect tool use to the actual tool use levels, and ultimately to project performance. Research questions reported on in this paper addressed levels of tool use, factors that affect tool usage, and the benefit aspect of tool use on project performance. Data were gathered via an on-line questionnaire that was statistically analysed, and a number of hypotheses were tested. The results of this study show that the levels of use of both qualitative and quantitative risk management tools are low compared with general project management tools. Correlations were found between a number of factors that affect tool use.

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