Abstract

TROTTER, Philipp A.; MACONACHIE, Roy  and  MCMANUS, Marcelle C.. The impact of political objectives on optimal electricity generation and transmission in the Southern African Power Pool. J. energy South. Afr. [online]. 2017, vol.28, n.3, pp.27-42. ISSN 2413-3051.  http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2017/v28i3a2451.

Southern Africa's electrification is at odds with United Nations goals to provide modern energy for all by 2030. Electricity planning, a crucial tool to optimally match future supply and demand, has largely focused on minimising costs in southern Africa, sometimes complemented by a discussion of a discrete set of environmental scenarios. Political objectives, although their significance is well documented, have been overlooked in Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) quantitative electrification planning research. This study created a novel geo-refer-enced, multi-objective linear programming (MOLP) model that combined continuous cost and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission minimisation objectives with the political goal of achieving national electricity self-sufficiency, yielding the optimal trade-off between these three objectives. It solved the MOLP for three different political risk scenarios in order to examine a further political objective. The results revealed a sharp monetary trade-off between CO₂ emission reductions and national electricity sovereignty objectives in the SAPP. Furthermore, curtailing international political risks has significant consequences for trade and the optimal generation mix. While the optimal size of the frequently recommended Grand Inga dam in the Democratic Republic of Congo was considerably reduced when either national electricity sovereignty or political risk constraints were imposed on the model, solar energy shares increased significantly in both cases. This was the case especially when CO₂ emissions were simultaneously curtailed. Increased technological, institutional and policy-making efforts to implement solar PV at scale would therefore imply immediate political and environmental merits for national governments in the SAPP, and present a sustainable development opportunity for the region. Highlights: • Multi-criteria optimisation of Southern African Power Pool energy network reveals novel insights. • Sharp monetary trade-off between CO₂ reduction and national electricity sovereignty. • Electricity sovereignty and political risk restrictions greatly affect generation mix. • Solar energy meets electricity sovereignty goals and decreases political risks.

Keywords : multi-criteria optimisation; political risk analysis; Grand Inga dam; energy security; renewable energy.

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